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Fig. 5.

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Bayesian log-evidence normalized to the highest evidence model, ln Z / Z max $ \ln \mathcal{Z/Z}_{\rm max} $, as a function of FG flexibility NFG (squares in the left panel), T ¯ 21 $ {\bar{T}_{21}} $ at z = 17 (middle), and calibration amplitude Acal (right, defined as A cal a 0 2 + a 1 2 $ A_{\rm cal} \equiv \sqrt{a_0^2 + a_1^2} $). Models with NFG ≥ 9 are omitted in the middle and right panel for visibility, as they overlap with NFG = 8, 9. Models below the horizontal gray dashed line are decisively disfavored ( ln Z / Z max 4.6 $ \ln \mathcal{Z/Z}_{\rm max} \le -4.6 $). We use red and blue colors to represent scenarios of no Tcal and with Tcal , respectively. The error bars in the middle and right panels represent 95% C.I. regions around the mean. In the middle panel, the region below the standard expectation ( T ¯ 21 < 210 $ \bar{T}_{21} < -210 $ mK) is shaded in gray, while the vertical black dashed line indicates T ¯ 21 = 0 $ {\bar{T}_{21}}=0 $. In the left panel, the blue and red crosses show the maximum log-likelihood ratio, ln ( L ̂ / L ̂ ) $ \ln (\hat{\mathcal{L}}/\hat{\mathcal{L}}_{\star}) $, normalized to our highest evidence model.

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