Fig. 6 – Histogram of 10⁴ simulations of visible probability of a light sail versus posterior visible probability density distribution of Oumuamua over 49 days. The gray histogram represents the statistical result from a uniform random sampling, whereas the blue histogram is the statistical outcome from a nonuniform sampling that mimics ground-based and HST astrometry of Oumuamua. The dot-dashed gray and blue lines denote the mean values of these two statistical visibility simulations of a light sail, respectively. The dot-dashed and solid red lines represent the expected a posteriori estimation and the posterior probability distribution of Oumuamua’s visible probability (see Eq. (35)), respectively, based on the fact that Oumuamua was visible in all 55 observations. The embedded panel shows the likelihood that the amplitude of the light curve varies within the ranges ΔH ≃ (2.5,3) (Meech et al. 2017) and (2.5, 3.5) during the period October 25 = −27, 2017, for the light-sail, oblate shape, and prolate shape models.