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Table 4.

Summary statistics for stage III forecasts.

Probes n(z) bias n(z) model δS8 [σ] 1/σ68(S8) χ MAP 2 $ \chi^{2}_{\mathrm{MAP}}\, $ S/N
γγ true do nothing 0.00 20.71 0.00 592
unbiased −0.01 20.59 0.00 590
incoherent −0.29 20.73 0.40 625
coherent 0.32 20.00 0.59 676

unbiased δzi −0.09 20.50 0.00 590
incoherent −0.10 20.35 0.61 625
coherent −0.10 22.03 0.55 676

unbiased 𝒩comb + δzi −0.09 20.25 0.00 590
incoherent −0.05 20.40 0.00 625
coherent −0.03 21.14 0.00 676

unbiased 𝒩comb 0.00 20.20 0.00 590
incoherent −0.01 20.44 0.00 625
coherent 0.04 21.47 0.00 676

Probes n(z) bias n(z) model δS8, Ωm [σ] FoM χ MAP 2 $ \chi^{2}_{\mathrm{MAP}}\, $ S/N

3 × 2 pt true do nothing 0.00 2130 0.00 9854
unbiased 0.00 2136 0.03 9851
incoherent 0.07 2044 1.27 9885
coherent 0.35 2170 1.32 9933

unbiased δzi 0.01 2041 0.02 9851
incoherent 0.04 2091 1.43 9885
coherent 0.15 2189 1.97 9933

unbiased 𝒩comb + δzi 0.00 2098 0.05 9851
incoherent 0.00 2144 0.09 9885
coherent 0.00 2196 0.14 9933

unbiased 𝒩comb 0.00 2131 0.05 9851
incoherent 0.01 2121 0.09 9885
coherent 0.00 2181 0.14 9933

3ph × 2 pt true do nothing 0.00 2027 0.00 7146
unbiased 0.23 2055 4.47 7094
incoherent 2.36 1480 46.97 7099
coherent 2.21 1783 76.52 7888

unbiased δzi 0.00 1809 2.06 7094
incoherent 0.55 1721 19.41 7099
coherent 0.56 2325 29.96 7888

unbiased 𝒩comb + δzi 0.09 1825 0.41 7094
incoherent 0.23 1956 0.83 7099
coherent 0.35 2097 0.87 7888

unbiased 𝒩comb 0.22 2041 0.50 7094
incoherent 0.02 1980 0.98 7099
coherent 0.17 2220 1.10 7888

6 × 2 pt true do nothing 0.00 2972 0.00 16 134
unbiased 0.21 3046 8.60 16 087
incoherent 1.01 2942 79.42 16 107
coherent 2.05 3080 104.36 16 102

unbiased δzi 0.01 2787 6.34 16 087
incoherent 0.33 2598 43.12 16 107
coherent 0.33 2658 67.90 16 102

unbiased 𝒩comb + δzi 0.37 2997 14.21 16 087
incoherent 0.01 2851 24.38 16 107
coherent 0.02 2658 39.18 16 102

unbiased 𝒩comb 0.49 3300 14.31 16 087
incoherent 0.02 3008 24.53 16 107
coherent 0.14 2899 39.54 16 102

Notes. Stage III survey forecasts were conducted with various sets of cosmological probes, redshift biases, and redshift recalibration nuisance models (left-most columns; see also Table 2). The remaining columns give: the posterior mean parameter bias (in units of σ, see the end of Sect. 4) on S8, or on the S8 − Ωm plane (Eq. (4.2)), relative to the idealized case ( probes : n z true : do nothing $ \mathrm{probes}:{n^{\mathrm{true}}_{z}}:\mathrm{do\,nothing} $; boldface rows); the inverse error 1/σ68 on S8, or the S8 − Ωm FoM; the best-fit χd2 at the MAP parameter set (Eq. (2.23)); and the S/N of the data-vector (hence the numbers for different nuisance models are the same when sharing the same data-vector). Numbers for forecasts conducted with exactly zero redshift bias ( n z true $ {n^{\mathrm{true}}_{z}} $) are given in boldface. As expected, we see a perfect recovery of the fiducial parameters by the MAP when the bias is exactly zero, signified by zero χ2 (some biased shear-only cases show zero χ2 due to rounding).

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