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Table 2

Impact probabilities computed with different methods.

Designation PMC ± 3σMC PT P PPBM PIPBM
2006 JY26 (5.6 ± 1.7) · 10−5 1.0 · 10−4 1.0 · 10−4 6.0 · 10−5
2006 QV89 (1.8 ± 0.1) · 10−3 2.0 · 10−3 1.8 · 10−3 1.8 · 10−3
2010 UK (3.1 ± 0.7) · 10−3 1.8 · 10−3 1.8 · 10−3 2.9 · 10−3
2011 AG5 (5.3 ± 1.3) · 10−4 4.2 · 10−4 5.7 · 10−4 5.5 · 10−4
2007 VK184 (7.8 ± 2.0) · 10−6 2.7 · 10−5 2.6 · 10−5 8.8 · 10−6
2007 VE191 (6.4 ± 1.0) · 10−4 0.0 6.8 · 10−4 7.0 · 10−4
2008 JL3 (3.0 ± 0.4) · 10−4 7.5 · 10−4 4.0 · 10−4 3.3 · 10−4
2014 WA (3.2 ± 2.4) · 10−7 0.0 5.4 · 10−7 5.3 · 10−7
2009 JF1 (7.4 ± 1.2) · 10−4 7.3 · 10−4 8.0 · 10−4 7.6 · 10−4
2012 MF7 (3.1 ± 0.8) · 10−4 0.0 4.8 · 10−4 3.2 · 10−4
2008 CK70 (6.4 ± 1.0) · 10−4 5.8 · 10−4 6.9 · 10−4 6.5 · 10−4
2005 BS1 (1.4 ± 0.2) · 10−4 0.0 1.4 · 10−4 1.4 · 10−4
2005 QK76 (4.3 ± 0.9) · 10−5 0.0 4.1 · 10−5 4.3 · 10−5
2007 KO4 (7.3 ± 4.0) · 10−7 0.0 2.2 · 10−6 9.7 · 10−7
Apophis 2036 (1.4 ± 0.8) · 10−5 0.0 0.0 1.2 · 10−5
2010 RF12 (0.0 ± 5.8) · 10−6 5.1 · 10−2 4.9 · 10−2 0.0

Notes. ‘Designation’ is the provisional designation or name of the asteroid, PMC is the probability computed with the Monte Carlo method, σMC is the standard deviation of PMC, and PT P and PPBM are probabilities calculated with the target plane method and the partial banana mapping method, respectively. PIPBM is the probability computed with the improved version of the PBM method.

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