From precursor to afterglow: The complex evolution of GRB 210312B

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Table 1.

Parameters of the two-component model (forward shock + early flare) fitted to the GRB 210312B optical afterglow using MCMC sampling.

Parameter	Value
α_FS,1	$- 1 . 025_{- 1.099}^{+ 0.704}$ $-1.025_{-1.099}^{+0.704}$
α_FS,2	$0 . 868_{- 0.262}^{+ 0.434}$ $0.868_{-0.262}^{+0.434}$
α_FS,3	$- 0 . 874_{- 0.994}^{+ 0.596}$ $-0.874_{-0.994}^{+0.596}$
α_flare,1	$- 4 . 080_{- 2.290}^{+ 1.625}$ $-4.080_{-2.290}^{+1.625}$
α_flare,2	$4 . 025_{- 1.501}^{+ 2.123}$ $4.025_{-1.501}^{+2.123}$
T_FS,12	$145 . 872_{- 64.374}^{+ 95.314}$ $145.872_{-64.374}^{+95.314}$
T_FS,23	$2407 . 173_{- 503.032}^{+ 369.532}$ $2407.173_{-503.032}^{+369.532}$
T_FS,34	$3836 . 146_{- 425.868}^{+ 383.336}$ $3836.146_{-425.868}^{+383.336}$
T_flare,12	$76 . 003_{- 5.053}^{+ 4.376}$ $76.003_{-5.053}^{+4.376}$
N_FS,12	$0 . 561_{- 0.353}^{+ 0.298}$ $0.561_{-0.353}^{+0.298}$
N_FS,23	$0 . 207_{- 0.151}^{+ 0.193}$ $0.207_{-0.151}^{+0.193}$
N_FS,34	$0 . 115_{- 0.078}^{+ 0.134}$ $0.115_{-0.078}^{+0.134}$
B	$22 . 066_{- 0.337}^{+ 0.259}$ $22.066_{-0.337}^{+0.259}$
B_flare	$18 . 227_{- 0.315}^{+ 0.316}$ $18.227_{-0.315}^{+0.316}$
p	$2 . 355_{- 0.151}^{+ 0.175}$ $2.355_{-0.151}^{+0.175}$
A_V,host	$- 0 . 073_{- 0.078}^{+ 0.100}$ $-0.073_{-0.078}^{+0.100}$

Derived Parameters:
α_FS,4	$1 . 266_{- 0.113}^{+ 0.131}$ $1.266_{-0.113}^{+0.131}$
β	$- 1 . 177_{- 0.087}^{+ 0.076}$ $-1.177_{-0.087}^{+0.076}$

Fit Statistics:
Number of parameters (k)	16
Number of data points (n)	38
Degrees of freedom	22
Maximum log-likelihood	–6.97
Akaike information criterion	45.94
Bayesian information criterion	72.14
Reduced χ²	0.52

Notes. The model includes temporal evolution with multiple breaks (T_FS,12−34, T_flare,12) and smoothness parameters (N_FS,12−34), spectral evolution governed by electron distribution index p, and host galaxy extinction A_V,host. α_FS,1−4 and α_RS,1−2 represent temporal decay indices, while B and B_flare are magnitude zero points at reference times (T_flare,12 and 10 ks, respectively). The quoted uncertainties represent the 16th and 84th percentiles of the posterior distributions.

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