Notes. Comparison between the LVK local (z ≲ 0.2) merger rate densities (Abbott et al. 2019, 2021, 2023) and those calculated with our models. The reference models that base the CE survival on the Hurley et al. (2000) evolutionary types for post-MS donor stars rather than on the presence of a convective envelope are those with the nomenclature M0 (the first two from the top). Listed are the models whose maximum stellar expansion and convective envelope prescriptions come from the same set of MESA tracks (in mydarkgreen green); the most optimistic models for CE survival for BH-BH progenitors (in red red); and the models that fit within the 90% credibility interval of the LVK observations (in bold).