Table 8.
Light-curve fits with MOSF IT: models, parameters, priors and marginalised posteriors.
| Parameter | Prior | Magnetar | Magnetar + | Magnetar + | 56Ni | Fallback | CSM | CSM + | CSM + | 56Ni |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56Ni | 56Ni | 56Ni | 56Ni | (red) | ||||||
| (fixed κ’s) | (fixed κ’s) | (fixed κ’s) | (fixed κ’s) | |||||||
| Fitted properties | ||||||||||
| General | ||||||||||
| Ejecta mass Mej (M⊙) | log𝒰(1,300) |
 |
 |
 |
83 ± 4 | 74 ± 5 |
 |
 |
34 ± 6 |
 |
| Explosion date texp (day) | 𝒰(−200,0) | −19 ± 3 | −22 ± 2 |
 |
−70 ± 5 | −11 ± 2 |
 |
 |
−14 ± 2 |
 |
| “γ-ray” opacity κγ (cm2 g−1) | log𝒰(10−2,104) | 0.013 ± 0.002 |
 |
0.03 | 0.03 | 0.010 ± 0.001 | ... |
 |
0.03 | 0.03 |
| Optical opacity κ (cm2 g−1) | 𝒰(0.01,0.2) | 0.18 ± 0.02 | 0.05 ± 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.19 ± 0.01 | ... | 0.07 ± 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Scaling velocity vscale (km s−1) | 𝒰(1000,10 000) |
 |
 |
 |
4050 ± 130 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| White noise parameter σ | log𝒰(10−3,100) | 0.25 ± 0.01 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.25 ± 0.01 | 0.25 ± 0.01 | 0.26 ± 0.01 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.23 ± 0.01 |
| Magnetar model | ||||||||||
| Magnetic field B⊥ (1014 G) | log𝒰(0.01,20) |
 |
 |
 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Neutron-star mass MNS (M⊙) | 𝒰(1,2.2) | 2.1 ± 0.1 |
 |
 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Initial spin period P0 (ms) | 𝒰(1,20) |
 |
 |
 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 56Ni model | ||||||||||
| Nickel fraction fNi | log𝒰(10−3,1) | ... | 0.6 ± 0.2 | 0.2 ± 0.1 | 0.50 ± 0.02 | ... | ... | 0.9 ± 0.1 | 0.6 ± 0.1 |
 |
| Fallback model | ||||||||||
| Luminosity L1 (1055erg s−1) | log𝒰(10−4,103) | ... | ... | ... | ... | 4.5 ± 0.1 | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Transition time ttr (day) | log𝒰(10−4,104) | ... | ... | ... | ... |
 |
... | ... | ... | ... |
| CSM | ||||||||||
| CSM mass MCSM (M⊙) | log𝒰(0.01,300) | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
 |
 |
 |
... |
| CSM density ρ(10−14 cm−3) | log𝒰(10−14,102) | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
 |
 |
 |
... |
| Power-law index of the CSM | 𝒰(0,2) | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | 0.6 ± 0.3 | 1.8 ± 0.1 | 0.5 ± 0.2 | ... |
| density profile s | ||||||||||
| Slope of the outer SN ejecta | 𝒰(8,12) | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
 |
 |
 |
... |
| density profile n | ||||||||||
| Slope of the inner SN ejecta | fixed | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | 0 | 0 | 0 | ... |
| density profile δ | ||||||||||
| Progenitor radius R0 (AU) | log𝒰(0.1,1000) | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
 |
 |
 |
... |
| Fit quality | ||||||||||
| Log Bayesian evidence (log Z) | 516 | 640 | 639 | 541 | 497 | 644 | 642 | 638 | 287 | |
| Number of free parameters | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 7 | |
| Derived properties | ||||||||||
| γ-ray escape time t0 (day) |
 |
 |
630 ± 80 | 570 ± 20 | 290 ± 20 | ... |
 |
300 ± 30 |
 |
|
| Nickel mass MNi (M⊙) | ... |
 |
 |
42 ± 3 | ... | ... |
 |
 |
 |
|
| Kinetic energy Ekin (1051 erg) | 21 ± 2 |
 |
 |
14 ± 1 | 23 ± 2 |
 |
12 ± 1 | 12 ± 2 |
 |
|
| Rotational energy Erot (1051 erg) |
 |
 |
 |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | |
Notes. The model “56Ni (red)” only fitted the data in the r and redder bands. We used uniform (𝒰) and log uniform (log𝒰) priors. The uncertainties of the marginalised posteriors are quoted at 1σ confidence. The explosion date is measured with respect to the date of the first detection. All marginalised posteriors are reported in linear units. The Bayesian evidence is reported in log units. The kinetic energy of the ejecta was computed via 
and the rotational energy of the magnetar via Erot = 2 × 1052 (MNS/1.4 M⊙)3/2 (P0/1 ms)−2 erg.
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