Testing the models with eRASS1-cosmo as a test catalogue, and eFEDS as a reference catalogue. The 531 eFEDS entries are grouped in bins of the model output probabilities P_i (horizontal axis). In each bin, the actual fraction of matches in the eRASS1 catalogue is reported on the vertical axis. Error bars represent the estimated 68% confidence range (Appendix C). The dotted line indicates the one-to-one relation, that would follow a perfectly reliable model. In general, the model predicts slightly lower probabilities than actually observed.