My concern with the optimism flowing from Doherty, is that the predictions are based on high levels of contact tracing. My feeling is that when Covid gets going, contact tracing is irrelevant. If the time period for an infected person to become contagious is less than the time period required for contact tracing, it's game over.

In Sydney, 1000 cases in a day. Assuming each person visited one venue whilst contagious. There's only check in, not checkout so there's going to be at least 10 people potentially touched by the event. That's 10,000 people to contact before they in their turn become potential spreaders. On an Ro of 1.4, the numbers will double every two days. Anything over 100 cases, I can't see how even a Gold Standard tracing system can keep up.