Prospects for optical detections from binary neutron star mergers with the next-generation multi-messenger observatories

¹ Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI), I-67100, L’Aquila, Italy
² INFN, Laboratori Nazionali Del Gran Sasso, I-67100, Assergi, Italy
³ INAF – Osservatorio Astronomico d’Abruzzo, 64100, Teramo, Italy
⁴ Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
⁵ Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, 38123 Trento, Italy
⁶ INFN-TIFPA, Trento Institute for Fundamental Physics and Applications, Via Sommarive 14, I-38123 Trento, Italy
⁷ GEPI, Observatoire de Paris, PSL University, CNRS, Meudon, France
⁸ Institut für Kernphysik, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schlossgartenstr 2, Darmstadt 64289, Germany
⁹ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255, USA
¹⁰ Joint Space-Science Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
¹¹ Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
¹² Astrophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Mail Code 661, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
¹³ Institut für Theoretische Astrophysik, ZAH, Universität Heidelberg, Albert-Ueberle-Straße 2, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany

^⋆ Corresponding authors: eleonora.loffredo@inaf.it; nandini.hazra@gssi.it; ulyana.dupletsa@gssi.it

Received: 4 November 2024
Accepted: 18 March 2025

Abstract

Context. Next-generation gravitational wave (GW) observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer, will observe binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across cosmic history, providing precise parameter estimates for the closest ones. Innovative wide-field observatories, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory, will quickly cover large portions of the sky with unprecedented sensitivity to detect faint transients.

Aims. This study aims to assess the prospects for detecting optical emissions from BNS mergers with next-generation detectors, considering how uncertainties in neutron star (NS) population properties and microphysics may affect detection rates, while developing realistic observational strategies by ET operating with the Rubin Observatory.

Methods. Starting from BNS merger populations exploiting different NS mass distributions and equations of state (EOSs), we modelled the GW and kilonova (KN) signals based on source properties. We modelled KNe ejecta through numerical-relativity informed fits, considering the effect of prompt collapse of the remnant to black hole and new fitting formulas appropriate for more massive BNS systems, such as GW190425. We included optical afterglow emission from relativistic jets consistent with observed short gamma-ray bursts. We evaluated the detected mergers and the source parameter estimations for different geometries of ET, operating alone or in network of current or next-generation GW detectors. Finally, we developed target-of-opportunity strategies to follow up on these events using Rubin and evaluated the joint detection capabilities.

Results. ET as a single observatory enables the detection of about ten to a hundred KNe per year by the Rubin Observatory. This improves by a factor of ∼10 already when operating in network with current GW detectors. Detection rate uncertainties are dominated by the poorly constrained local BNS merger rate, and depend to a lesser extent on the NS mass distribution and EOS.