Table 1.
Inference results.
| Observations | Uniform priors | Gaussian prior on n | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P ± ΔP [min] | BM1 [G] | BM2 [G] | Bavg [G] | BM1 [G] | BM2 [G] | Bavg [G] | |
| Synthetic | 30 ± 10 | 9
|
9
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
| Synthetic | 60 ± 10 | 19
|
21
|
20
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
| Synthetic | 90 ± 10 | 30
|
36
|
33
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
| Synthetic | 120 ± 10 | 40
|
60
|
53
|
16
|
24
|
23
|
| Zhang et al. (2017) | 99 ± 10 | 33
|
42
|
38
|
27
|
35
|
32
|
Notes. Posterior summaries for different synthetic periods and one observed event under the two considered models and the two adopted sets of priors. The corresponding marginal posteriors are displayed in Figure 3 for the synthetic observations and in Figure 5 for the event observed by Zhang et al. (2017). Posterior summaries are given as the median and upper and lower bounds at the 68% credible interval. We note that the Gaussian prior in density for the synthetic cases is 𝒢(n [cm−3]; μn, σn), with μn = 1010 cm−3 and σn = 0.2μn, while for the observed event, it is 𝒢(n [cm−3]; μn, σn), with μn = 4.25 × 1010 cm−3 and σn = 0.2μn.
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