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Table 1.

Inference results.

Observations Uniform priors Gaussian prior on n
P ± ΔP [min] BM1 [G] BM2 [G] Bavg [G] BM1 [G] BM2 [G] Bavg [G]

Synthetic 30 ± 10 9 4 + 4 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+4}_{-4} $ 9 4 + 4 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+4}_{-4} $ 9 4 + 4 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+4}_{-4} $ 3 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $ 4 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $ 4 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $
Synthetic 60 ± 10 19 6 + 5 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+5}_{-6} $ 21 7 + 6 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+6}_{-7} $ 20 6 + 6 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+6}_{-6} $ 8 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $ 8 1 + 2 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+2}_{-1} $ 8 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $
Synthetic 90 ± 10 30 9 + 7 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+7}_{-9} $ 36 11 + 10 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+10}_{-11} $ 33 10 + 10 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+10}_{-10} $ 12 1 + 1 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+1}_{-1} $ 14 2 + 3 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+3}_{-2} $ 13 2 + 3 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+3}_{-2} $
Synthetic 120 ± 10 40 12 + 8 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+8}_{-12} $ 60 19 + 19 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+19}_{-19} $ 53 17 + 20 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+20}_{-17} $ 16 2 + 2 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+2}_{-2} $ 24 4 + 6 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+6}_{-4} $ 23 6 + 6 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+6}_{-6} $
Zhang et al. (2017) 99 ± 10 33 10 + 7 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+7}_{-10} $ 42 13 + 11 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+11}_{-13} $ 38 12 + 12 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+12}_{-12} $ 27 3 + 4 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+4}_{-3} $ 35 6 + 7 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+7}_{-6} $ 32 6 + 8 Mathematical equation: $ ^{+8}_{-6} $

Notes. Posterior summaries for different synthetic periods and one observed event under the two considered models and the two adopted sets of priors. The corresponding marginal posteriors are displayed in Figure 3 for the synthetic observations and in Figure 5 for the event observed by Zhang et al. (2017). Posterior summaries are given as the median and upper and lower bounds at the 68% credible interval. We note that the Gaussian prior in density for the synthetic cases is 𝒢(n [cm−3]; μn, σn), with μn = 1010 cm−3 and σn = 0.2μn, while for the observed event, it is 𝒢(n [cm−3]; μn, σn), with μn = 4.25 × 1010 cm−3 and σn = 0.2μn.

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