Table 2.
Statistical summary for the activity parameters and their model log-marginal likelihood ln(P(O|MAR) when F(θ|x) = Π(θ0, δ), Λ(θ0, δ), or 𝒩(θ0, δ).
| Active Sun | Quiet Sun | 16 Cyg A |
16 Cyg B |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bias | bias corr. | No bias |
bias corr. |
||||||
| a4 ≃ −27.9 | a4 ≃ −1.0 | a4 ≃ −27.9 | a4 ≃ −1.0 | ||||||
| ln(P(O|MCF) | −10.809 | −0.367 | −1.856 | −3.889 | −10.596 | −1.228 | −5.910 | −2.951 | |
| Π(θ0, δ) | ϵnl (10−4) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| θ0 (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| δ (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| ln(P(O|MAR) | −0.685 | −0.347 | −0.482 | −0.656 | −0.878 | −0.449 | −0.781 | −0.611 | |
| Significance (%) | > 99.99 | 50.5 | 79.8 | 96.2 | > 99.9 | 68.6 | 99.3 | 91.2 | |
| Λ(θ0, δ) | ϵnl (10−4) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| θ0 (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| δ (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| ln(P(O|MAR) | −0.698 | −0.296 | −0.492 | −0.699 | −0.930 | −0.427 | −0.847 | −0.639 | |
| Significance (%) | > 99.99 | 51.8 | 79.6 | 96.0 | > 99.99 | 69.0 | 99.4 | 91.0 | |
| 𝒩(θ0, δ) | ϵnl (10−4) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| θ0 (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| δ (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| ln(P(O|MAR) | −0.708 | −0.384 | −0.584 | −0.811 | −0.943 | −0.516 | −0.811 | −0.759 | |
| Significance (%) | > 99.99 | 49.6 | 78.1 | 95.6 | > 99.99 | 67.1 | 99.4 | 90.0 | |
| Average | ϵnl (10−4) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| θ0 (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| δ (deg) |  |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
| ln(P(O|MAR) | −0.697 | −0.342 | −0.519 | −0.722 | −0.917 | −0.464 | −0.824 | −0.670 | |
| Significance (%) | > 99.99 | 50.6 | 79.2 | 96.0 | > 99.99 | 68.2 | 99.4 | 90.7 | |
Notes. The log-marginal likelihood for a pure centrifugal effect is ln(P(O|MCF). The activity significance is the probability that the activity is necessary to explain the data and derived from the log-marginal likelihoods. Uncertainty regarding the activity significance is less than 0.25%.
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