Fig. 1.

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Schematic of event timing in the first double neutron star merger detected (top): the multimessenger event GW170817 at merger time tm with accompanying GRB170817A at tGRB = tm + tg following a gap tg ≃ 1.7 s (bottom). The central engine of GRB170817A formed in this gap by causality, whereby tm < ts < tGRB for the start-time of accompanying gravitational radiation. This gap condition poses a discrete event time problem for the probability p of false alarm (PFA) for a candidate detection to be in the 1.7 s gap between GW1709817–GRB170817A: p = tg/T marked by the (unique) global maximum of an indicator function over an observational time T given the uniform prior on astrophysical event times (Appendix A). When sufficiently large, the energy output ℰGW marked by ts can break the degeneracy between neutron stars and black holes.
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