Populating the Milky Way

Characterising planet demographics by combining galaxy formation simulations and planet population synthesis models

¹ Kapteyn Astronomical Institute, University of Groningen, Landleven 12 (Kapteynborg, 5419) 9747 AD Groningen, The Netherlands
e-mail: boettner@astro.rug.nl
² GELIFES Institute, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 7 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
³ Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, 14482 Potsdam, Germany
⁴ SUPA, Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ, UK
⁵ Centre for Exoplanet Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK
⁶ School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Edinburgh, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK

Received: 9 February 2024
Accepted: 23 March 2024

Abstract

Context. Stellar populations and their distribution differ widely across the Galaxy, which is likely to affect planet demographics. Our local neighbourhood is dominated by young, metal-rich stars in the galactic thin disc, while the stellar halo and galactic bulge host a large fraction of older, metal-poor stars.

Aims. We study the impact of these variations on planet populations in different regions of the Galaxy by combining a high-resolution galaxy formation simulation with state-of-the-art planet population synthesis models.

Methods. We constructed a population model to estimate occurrence rates of different planet types, based on the New Generation Planet Population Synthesis (NGPPS). We applied this model to a simulated Milky Way (MW) analogue in the HESTIA galaxy formation simulation. We studied the planet occurrence rate in the metal-rich regions of the inner Galaxy, namely, in the galactic bulge and thin disc. We compared these result with the frequencies in the more distant, metal-poor region such as the thick disc and stellar halo.

Results. We find that the planet demographics in the central, metal-rich regions of the MW analogue differ strongly from the planet populations in the more distant, metal-poor regions. The occurrence rate of giant planets (>300 M_⊕) is 10–20 times larger in the thin disc compared to the thick disc, driven by the low amounts of solid material available for planet formation around metal-poor stars. Similarly, low-mass Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars are most abundant in the thick disc, being 1.5 times more frequent than in the thin disc. Moreover, low-mass planets are expected to be abundant throughout the galaxy, from the central regions to the outer halo, due to their formation processes being less dependent on stellar metallicity. The planet populations differ more strongly around Sun-like stars compared to dwarfs with masses 0.3–0.5 M_⊙, caused by a weaker correlation between [Fe/H] metallicity and planet mass. However, it is important to note that the occurrence rates of low-mass planets are still uncertain, making our findings strongly model-dependent. Massive planets are more comprehensively understood and our findings are more robust. Nonetheless, other systematic effects have the potential to alter the giant planet population that we have not addressed in this study. We discuss some of these limitations and offer further directions for future research.