Volume 572, December 2014
|Number of page(s)||8|
|Section||Planets and planetary systems|
|Published online||04 December 2014|
Nongravitational perturbations and virtual impactors: the case of asteroid (410777) 2009 FD
1 Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, 56126 Pisa, Italy
2 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
3 ESA NEO Coordination Centre, 00044118 Frascati, Roma, Italy
4 IAPS-INAF, 00133 Roma, Italy
5 IFAC-CNR, Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze, Italy
6 LESIA - Observatory of Paris, CNRS, UPMC, University of Paris-Diderot, 92195 Meudon, France
7 European Southern Observatory, 85748 Munich, Germany
Received: 4 August 2014
Accepted: 17 September 2014
Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD could hit Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To compute accurate impact probabilities we model the Yarkovsky effect by using the available physical characterization of 2009 FD and general properties of the near Earth asteroid population. We perform the hazard assessment with two independent methods: the first method is a generalization of the standard impact monitoring algorithms in use by NEODyS and Sentry, while the second one is based on a Monte Carlo approach. Both methods generate orbital samples in a seven-dimensional space that includes orbital elements and the parameter characterizing the Yarkovsky effect. The highest impact probability is 2.7 × 10-3 for an impact during the 2185 Earth encounter. Impacts after 2185 corresponding to resonant returns are possible, the most relevant being in 2190 with a probability of 3 × 10-4. Both numerical methods can be used in the future to handle similar cases. The structure of resonant returns and the list of the possible keyholes on the target plane of the scattering encounter in 2185 can be predicted by an analytic theory.
Key words: minor planets, asteroids: individual: 2009 FD / celestial mechanics
© ESO, 2014
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