Fig. 8

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Ecliptic longitude and latitude of the Apophis rotation angular momentum L before (green, blue, and red for models C, A, and B, respectively) and after (black) the close encounter to Earth in April 2029, calculated from the purely gravitational model of the spin state change. Individual symbols come from 1000 nominal model simulations, with gravitational torques included, using statistically equivalent initial conditions on January 1, 2021. All of the action, illustrated for our best-fit solution by the black line, occurs within ≃ ± 2 days centered at the Earth encounter. While the median longitude changes by more than 100°, the true tilt of L is far smaller because of the near-polar latitude. Its median value is ≃9.8°. Unlike the periods Pϕ and Pψ in Fig. 6, the post-encounter uncertainty region in longitude and latitude is not significantly stretched.
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