Comparison of the number of lenses and their Einstein radius distribution of successfully modelled ELSE candidates (blue histogram), and the forecasts of Collett (2015) rescaled to 0.7 deg² (dotted black line). The dotted black line is a prediction, not a fit. The orange ‘cutoff’ line is a modification of the Collett (2015) forecasts to account for the selection function arising from our methodology missing small-Einstein-radius lenses.