Input burst profiles (left) and output flux ratios as a function of time for 70 (middle) and 160 μm (right) for the mean model. The burst energy is varied between (0.23 and 6.9)×10⁴⁷ erg (color-coded). Obviously, the afterglows are longer for more energetic bursts. The geometry is the same for all simulations. The HAWC+ measurements are colored red. The horizontal solid and dashed-dotted lines mark the pre-burst level and 1.25 times that level. The insets show a zoom-in on the region of interest. The simulations (colored dots) were interpolated in time to reduce numerical scatter (corresponding lines and shaded regions). The observations are given in red.