Comparison of the simulated toroidal flux loss with observations. The red, blue, and green curves are the mean results of 100 realisations used as input to the SFTM for AMR, LMR, and SMR, respectively. The shaded areas are the standard deviations. (a) 3-month smoothed sum of the absolute toroidal flux loss of both hemispheres over cycles 20–24. (b) 1-year smoothed sum of the absolute toroidal flux loss of both hemispheres over the entire simulated period from 1874 to 2020.