Redshift and effective spin parameters of the 69 confident BBH observations drawn from the GWTC-3 posteriors (orange; “observed”) compared to 69 draws from the inferred distribution fit (blue; “predicted”) described in Sect. 3.3. Each marker shape corresponds to a different set of 69 draws. We plot ten total sets. The inferred model sometimes over-predicts the largest observed χ_eff, while the bulk of both observed and predicted draws cover an equivalent portion of the z − χ_eff plane in a comparable abundance, confirming that the inferred model is a good fit for the data.