Distribution of peak kilonova magnitudes and kilonova detection rate as a function of threshold. Left: distribution of the peak AB magnitude in the g, r, i, and z bands predicted for kilonovae associated with GW triggers during O4. Right: rate of kilonovae brighter than a given r magnitude associated with GW detections during O3, O4, and O5, assuming a GW neutron star coalescence detection rate of τ_BNS, GW = 10 yr⁻¹ for O4 (Abbott et al. 2020b). The bright end of the distribution (r < 19) is well fit by Eq. (6).