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Fig. 1

image

Model comparison for WASP-31b using Bayesian evidence for different atmospheric models. The flat model is shown as the orange dot, whereas cyan dots indicate higher complexity in the form of a chemical species, as labelled. One stage higher, blue dots represent a model that includes H2 O and an additional parameter. For the final stage, the strongest evidence model from lower complexities is complemented by K and potentially Na, as shown by the violet dots. In this final stage, we also tested the inclusion of some of the more likely species of lower levels. The horizontal scale bars indicate the statistical preference for a more complex model, based on Table 3.

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