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Fig. 3

image

Total cumulative >1 GV proton fluence of the GLEs and sub-GLEs of SC 23 (red polyline) plotted as a function of time since the start of the SC; the same GLE fluence plotted by scaling the parameters J0 and R0 to the values representing SC 24 assuming an entirely suprathermal seed population (blue polyline); and the true cumulative GLE fluence of SC 24 (black polyline). The green polyline is the scaled fluence assuming that the seed population consists of 40% of suprathermals. The 1σ uncertainties are given as dashed polylines around each of the cumulative fluence polylines.

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