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Table 7
Model probabilities for HD 40307.
| log p(D | Mn,I)−1000 | p(Mn | D,I) /p(M3 | D,I) |
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| n | Periods [d] | CJ01 | P14 | TPM | BIC | CJ01 | P14 | [m s-1] | [m s-1] |
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| 2 | {9.6, 20.4} | 1.95 ± 0.09 | 0.57 ± 0.04 | 52.41 | 16.60 | (1.93 ± 0.23) × 10-21 | (1.65 ± 0.12) × 10-21 | 1.70 ± 0.15 | 1.81 ± 0.04 |
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| 3 | {4.3, 9.6, 20.4} | 49.65 ± 0.10 | 48.43 ± 0.07 | 123.90 | 76.73 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.972 ± 0.099 | 1.19 ± 0.03 |
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| 4 | {4.3, 9.6, 20.4, 51.6} | 51.88 ± 0.16 | 51.54 ± 0.12 | 143.41 | 84.76 | 9.3 ± 1.7 | 22.6 ± 2.8 | 0.818 ± 0.090 | |
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| 5 | {4.3, 9.6, 20.4, 51.6, 204.9} |
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164.15 | 99.91 | 0.041 ± 0.026 | 356 ± 11 | 0.630 ± 0.079 | 0.92 ± 0.03 |
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| 6 | {4.3, 9.6, 20.4, 51.6, ...† } | 8.7 ± 7.0 | 47.7 ± 2.3 | 170.43 | 93.44 | 1.64 × 10-18 |
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0.574 ± 0.084 | 0.85 ± 0.04 |
Notes. Estimate of the evidence (marginal likelihood) for models with n = 2,...,5 Keplerians and an additional long-term drift, common to all of them. Columns are the same as in Table 4.
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