Probability that the high-activity episode will be ended by a low-activity episode of a given length, 30 years length – bold lines and 50 years length – thin lines. The solid lines show the results for 2D1α model, the dotted lines show the results for the 2D1αL model based on the log-normal fluctuations of the α-effect, and the dashed lines show the results for the reconstruction provided by Solanki et al. (2004).