Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyid meteor showers^★

¹ IMCCE, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Lille, France
² Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada
e-mail: aegal@uwo.ca
³ Institute for Earth and Space Exploration (IESX), The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada

Received: 16 July 2020
Accepted: 1 August 2020

Abstract

Context. We present a new numerical model of the η-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers.

Aims. The model investigates the origin, variability, and age of the η-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades.

Methods. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every η-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 yr of meteor observations, including the shower activity profiles and interannual variability.

Results. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day η-Aquariids and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the η-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 yr, while a greater fraction of the Orionids is composed of older material. The 1:6 mean motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 yr in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. Weaker evidence of a 10.7 yr period in the peak activity for the η-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outbursts through 2050 and four significant η-Aquariid outbursts, in 2023, 2024, 2045, and 2046.