Investigating the potential of the Pan-Planets project using Monte Carlo simulations

¹ University Observatory Munich, Scheinerstrasse 1, 81679 München, Germany e-mail: koppenh@usm.uni-muenchen.de
² Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstrasse, 85748 Garching, Germany e-mail: [koppenh;saglia]@mpe.mpg.de
³ Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Königstuhl 17, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany e-mail: [afonso;henning]@mpia.de

Received: 6 August 2008
Accepted: 2 December 2008

Abstract

Using Monte Carlo simulations we analyze the potential of the upcoming transit survey Pan-Planets. The analysis covers the simulation of realistic light curves (including the effects of ingress/egress and limb-darkening) with both correlated and uncorrelated noise as well as the application of a box-fitting-least-squares detection algorithm. In this work we show how simulations can be a powerful tool in defining and optimizing the survey strategy of a transiting planet survey. We find the Pan-Planets project to be competitive with all other existing and planned transit surveys with the main power being the large 7 square degree field of view. In the first year we expect to find up to 25 Jupiter-sized planets with periods below 5 days around stars brighter than V = 16.5 mag. The survey will also be sensitive to planets with longer periods and planets with smaller radii. After the second year of the survey, we expect to find up to 9 Warm Jupiters with periods between 5 and 9 days and 7 Very Hot Saturns around stars brighter than  mag as well as 9 Very Hot Neptunes with periods from 1 to 3 days around stars brighter than  mag.