| Issue |
A&A
Volume 457, Number 1, October I 2006
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Page(s) | 309 - 312 | |
| Section | The Sun | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20064837 | |
| Published online | 12 September 2006 | |
A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR China e-mail: zldu@bao.ac.cn
Received:
11
January
2006
Accepted:
15
May
2006
Aims.This paper aims to search for a method to estimate the onset of a new solar cycle by re-investigating the relationship between descending and ascending phase durations in terms of weighted extremum times.
Methods.The lagged cross-correlation method is used to analyze their relationship.
Results. The descending phase durations are found to be anti-correlated (correlation coefficient, -0.77)
with the ascending phase
durations three cycles earlier,
in the 13-month running mean sunspot numbers since cycle 8.
From linear regression analysis,
the descending phase duration of cycle 23 is estimated to be 
months;
thus, cycle 24 should start near March 2007, where the error bar equals ± standard error.
Key words: Sun: activity / Sun: sunspots / Sun: general
© ESO, 2006
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.