Search for a relationship between solar cycle amplitude and length

¹ Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany e-mail: natalie@linmpi.mpg.de; schuessler@linmpi.mpg.de
² Astronomical Institute, St. Petersburg University, 198504 St. Petersburg, Russia
³ Institute of Astronomy, ETH Zentrum, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland e-mail: fligge@astro.phys.ethz.ch

Corresponding author: S. K. Solanki, solanki@linmpi.mpg.de

Received: 13 August 2001
Accepted: 1 October 2002

Abstract

The cross-correlation between time series of solar cycle length and amplitude suggests that the length precedes the amplitude. The relationship between the two is found to be more complex than a simple lag or phase shift, however. A simple empirical model is constructed which allows the amplitude of a given cycle to be predicted with relatively high accuracy from the lengths of earlier cycles. This result not only adds to the means at our disposal for predicting the amplitudes of future cycles, but also implies that the solar dynamo carries a memory of the length of one cycle over into the next. It may also have a bearing on why solar cycle length correlates better with the Earth's temperature record than cycle amplitude (Friis-Christensen & Lassen [CITE]). Thoughts on possible physical causes are presented.