A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23

¹ Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China
² National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China
³ Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China
⁴ Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China
⁵ Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China
⁶ Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
⁷ Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China

Corresponding author: K. J. Li, kejunli@netease.com

Received: 28 May 2001
Accepted: 18 April 2002

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.