Notes. Event samples are composed as follows. S​_M1+: 231 flares of GOES class M1 or larger. S​_M4−: smaller M-class flares (up to GOES class M4). S​_major: major flares (GOES class M5 or larger). S​_X1+: X-class flares (GOES Xlass M1 or larger). Numbers in brackets indicate the ratio of confined to eruptive flares within the sample. Success rates are given in percent of the total number of flares within a sample. For flare-type prediction the pre-flare values of |H_J|/|H_V| = 0.1 or $|H_{\mathrm{J}}|/{\stackrel{\sim }{\varphi }}^2$ = 2.5 × 10⁻³ were used as an individual criterion.