Confidence areas for the source region of the solar wind derived for different sources of uncertainty. (Left) The synoptic AIA 193 Å map corresponding to Event 1. The black box indicates the area of interest. (Right) A zoom-in of the area of interest. The colored ellipses display the confidence area in the back-mapped position (on the solar surface) of the in situ solar wind for different sources of uncertainty. The color of each ellipse denotes the uncertainty source responsible (as indicated in the legend) and the transparency the 1–3 sigma area, with the 1 sigma being less transparent. These confidence area results correspond to in situ point number 10 of Event 1.