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Fig. 3.

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Contours of β1 as a function of time for sublevel thresholds Br = 0 to 5000 G for two ARs. Panel (a) shows ten days of evolution for SHARP 6950 (NOAA AR 12636) where day 0 is 2300 UT on 14 February 2017. No flares were observed. Panel (b) shows thirteen days of evolution for SHARP 7115 (NOAA AR 12673) where day 0 is 0900 UT on 28 August 2017. In this case, the threshold for β1 ≳ 10 jumps up about two days before the first M-class flare (indicated by orange vertical bar), and nearly four days before the first X-class eruption (red vertical bar) that occurred at 0857 UT on 6 September 2017. The Br strength thresholds, s0 = 263 G, s1 = 789 G, ..., s8 = 4473 G and s9 = 5000 G, correspond to the tick marks on the ordinate. The breadth of the color bar scale is the result of the large number of small-scale holes from noise in the image.

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