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Fig. 8

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Our considered model atmospheres produced using CHIMERA compared to the five potential planetary spectrum scenarios. Top: in addition to the mean-subtracted models (solid, dashed, and dotted lines), we include 1, 2, and 3σ errors of the flat “no atmosphere” model as blue shaded regions. The confidence to which the solar metallicity scenario can be ruled out is reported after each scenario. The cold spot scenarios, 3Tc and 2Tc, can be clearly ruled out at high confidence. Of the remaining models and scenarios, no model can be confidently excluded at ≥3σ. However, a featureless infrared spectrum (solid line) either due to an airless body or an atmosphere without infrared features (e.g., a molecular nitrogen atmosphere) is statistically preferred over a 1 times solar metallicity atmosphere (dashed line) or a ten times solar, water- and methane-rich atmosphere (dotted line). Bottom: scenarios with the best goodness of fit (1T, 2Tm, 3Tm) against the three model atmospheres (lx solar, light orange; 10× solar, dark orange; no atmosphere, blue). We report the of the flat line after the three scenarios in the legend.

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