Open Access
Table 1.
Prediction lead times.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 53.9 | 33.7 | 20.6 | 27.1 | 57.4 | 25.5 | 50.8 | 25.2 | 21.1 | 38.1 | 25.8 | 52.2 |
| 70% | 52.7 | 9 | 18.9 | 24.8 | 56.3 | 17 | 49.7 | 24.1 | 20.7 | 34.2 | 11 | 50.6 |
| 80% | 45.2 | 6.6 | 17.7 | 23.3 | 55.1 | 16.5 | 48.7 | 22.6 | 20.1 | 25 | 9.9 | 48.1 |
| 90% | 8.4 | 5.2 | 16.1 | 21.4 | 51.4 | 16 | – | 19.6 | 19.3 | 23.5 | 9 | 44.8 |
| 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
| 60% | 34 | 34.4 | 35.4 | 42.3 | 27.8 | 22.7 | 29.5 | 38.7 | 28.1 | 21.3 | 52.6 | 43.6 |
| 70% | 33.1 | 32.7 | 34.3 | 40 | 26.1 | 20.5 | 28.2 | 37.6 | 26.6 | 19.9 | 47.9 | 41.8 |
| 80% | 32.2 | 31.6 | 33.2 | 39.5 | 22.8 | 18.2 | 26.5 | 36.2 | 24.2 | 18.9 | 35.3 | 40.6 |
| 90% | 31.2 | 26.7 | 31.8 | 38.9 | 13.2 | 16.2 | – | 35 | – | 17.6 | – | 39.7 |
Notes. Lead time (in months) when the prediction using increasing SNFD in the ascending phase (for 37-month smoothing window) reached 60, 70, 80, and 90% from the actual solar cycle amplitude for cycles 1–24. Cycle numbers are indicated in bold.
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