Fig. 7

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Posterior TTV predictions of planet b computed relative to a linear ephemeris6 are shown in blue. A thousand random draws from the posterior distribution were used to estimate the TTV median value and its uncertainty (68.3% credible interval). In the upper panel, the median TTV values are shown and compared with individual transit-time determinations (Hébrard et al. 2020 in red, and Sect. 5 in black). The thick grey line represents a linear ephemeris computed using only the transits observed by TESS (whose residuals are shown in the small panel in the upper right). In the lower panel, the posterior median transit-timing value was subtracted to visualise the uncertainty of the distribution. The posterior median transit time was also subtracted from each observed epoch for the individual transit-time determinations to allow for better comparison with the photodynamical modelling. The orange curve in the upper panel represents the variation in the times of inferior conjunction for planet c.
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