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Fig. 11

image

Bayes factors from a suite of models for HD 4747B. Four models were considered: equilibrium chemistry without clouds (EB) or with clouds (EC), and unconstrained chemistry without clouds (UB) or with clouds (UC). The numbers associated with each model’s name indicate the molecules included (1: H2 O, 2: CO2, 5: CO, and 6: CH4); if there are no numbers then all four molecules are included. The Bayesian evidence clearly favors models with clouds and the most favored model is unconstrained chemistry including H2O, CO2, and CH4. The number associated with each histogram is the logarithm of the Bayes factor between the model in question and its neighbor below. The color bar shows the logarithm of the Bayes factor between the model in question and the best model, which is the model placed at the top.

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