Table 4
Probability of detecting at least one magma ocean planet in the most promising stellar associations (β Pictoris, Tucana-Horologium, Columba, and TW Hydrae) for different integration times (5 and 50 h per star), instruments (L56: LIFE 5.6 μm, L10: LIFE 10 μm, E22: ELT 2.2 μm, E38: ELT 3.8 μm), and atmospheric emissivities (or steam atmosphere).
| Probability (%) – 5 h | Probability (%) – 50 h | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filter | SA | ϵ = 0.01 | ϵ = 0.1 | ϵ = 1 | Steam | ϵ = 0.01 | ϵ = 0.1 | ϵ = 1 | Steam |
| L56 | β Pictoris | 5.9 | 15.8 | 1.3 | – | 66.9 | 15.8 | 1.3 | – |
| Tucana-Horologium | – | 7.7 | 0.6 | – | 22.2 | 7.7 | 0.6 | – | |
| Columba | – | 10.2 | 0.9 | – | 23.6 | 10.2 | 0.9 | – | |
| TW Hydrae | – | 6.8 | 4.9 | – | 10.9 | 60.8 | 4.9 | – | |
| L10 | β Pictoris | – | 2.4 | 1.3 | – | – | 14.6 | 1.3 | – |
| Tucana-Horologium | – | – | 0.6 | – | – | 7.4 | 0.6 | – | |
| Columba | – | – | 0.9 | – | – | 7.4 | 0.9 | – | |
| TW Hydrae | – | – | 2.1 | – | – | 3.2 | 4.0 | – | |
| E22 | β Pictoris | 62.8 | 12.3 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 73.1 | 12.3 | 1.0 | 82.6 |
| Tucana-Horologium | 37.8 | 7.7 | 0.6 | – | 52.5 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 17.8 | |
| Columba | 44.4 | 10.2 | 0.9 | – | 63.1 | 10.2 | 0.9 | 7.3 | |
| TW Hydrae | 18.3 | 6.4 | 0.5 | – | 44.9 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | |
| E38 | β Pictoris | – | 5.8 | 0.8 | – | 2.5 | 9.6 | 0.8 | – |
| Tucana-Horologium | – | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | – | 3.9 | 0.3 | – | |
| Columba | – | 1.0 | 0.4 | – | – | 5.3 | 0.4 | – | |
| TW Hydrae | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | 2.0 | 0.2 | – | |
Notes. We do not show detection probabilitiesfor ELT 11.6 μm, as it is not able to detect any magma ocean planets (cf. Fig. 5).
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