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Fig. 6


Spatial-temporal forecast of the last two cycles using the calibrated parameters I = 2, J = 6, K = 9, and L = 70. The top panel is the full data set, including the training set and the actual observed future data set. The bottom panel is the training set plus the forecasted set. The boundary between the training set and the forecast set is marked by a black vertical line in each plot. The main features of the butterfly diagram, namely the amplitude of the cycle and the migration to the equator, are both present, even if the forecast is far from perfect. The colour scheme used tries to follow the distribution of covered area as suggest by the data in Table 1.

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