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Fig. 11

image

Maximum total sunspot area across the next forecasted cycle against the structural similarity SSIM for random choices of the forecasting algorithm’s input parameters. This shows that similar quality forecasts, at least in terms of structural similarity, can have quite different maximum sunspot areas over the next cycle. The red line marks the actual real maximum of the smoothed total sunspot area across the next cycle. This clearly shows that markedly different forecasts of different quality (in space and time) can have a similar accurate maximum of the sunspot area.

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