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Fig. 2

image

Estimated time-averaged X-ray flux for IGR J00291+5934 for the outbursts observed between 2001–2015, based on the outburst fluences listed in Table 2. The 2008 August and September outbursts are taken together to estimate the average rate since 2004. The average flux can be taken as a measure of the accretion rate into the disk between outbursts; the dashed line shows a linear fit, which (extrapolated) decreased to zero by 2024. We predict that the source may not exhibit another outburst as strong as that in July 2015 in the next decade.

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