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Table 2

Artificial (first column) and retrieved (subsequent columns) signals (their MAP parameter estimates) in terms of parameters K, P, and e using a model without any of the AR or MA components (0) and with selected AR or MA models for each data set.

Signal 0 AR(1) MA(1) AR(3) MA(3) MA(5) MA(7) MA(10)
K = 5 [m s-1] 5.50 2.87 5.49 2.03 5.32 5.36 5.39 5.38
P = 20 [days] 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00
e = 0 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.02
K = 2 [m s-1] 2.60 1.25 2.57 0.75 2.39 2.41 2.37 2.40
P = 20 [days] 19.98 19.98 19.98 19.97 19.99 20.00 20.00 20.00
e = 0 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.03
K = 1 [m s-1] 1.68 0.80 1.65 0.44 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.40
P = 20 [days] 19.96 19.97 19.97 19.96 19.98 20.00 20.00 20.01
e = 0 0.11 0.06 0.10 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.03
K = 5 [m s-1] 5.32 2.63 5.33 1.78 5.30 5.31 5.27 5.31
P = 50 [days] 50.08 50.08 50.07 50.06 50.05 50.05 50.04 50.05
e = 0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.00
K = 2 [m s-1] 2.42 1.13 2.45 0.65 2.40 2.37 2.33 2.33
P = 50 [days] 50.12 50.13 50.14 50.17 50.11 50.09 50.09 50.11
e = 0 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.03 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.07
K = 1 [m s-1] 1.58 0.72 1.56 0.39 1.41 1.37 1.36 1.36
P = 50 [days] 50.21 50.21 50.20 50.21 50.16 50.16 50.17 50.19
e = 0 0.25 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.05
K = 5 [m s-1] 5.46 2.64 5.45 1.76 5.39 5.40 5.36 5.35
P = 100 [days] 99.98 99.85 99.92 100.07 99.96 99.99 99.98 99.99
e = 0 0.09 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03
K = 2 [m s-1] 2.67 1.30 2.58 0.68 2.43 2.36 2.39 2.36
P = 100 [days] 100.47 100.43 100.38 100.02 100.00 99.99 100.02 100.00
e = 0 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.05 0.16 0.11 0.10 0.10
K = 1 [m s-1] 1.72 0.80 1.63 0.44 1.48 1.41 1.42 1.40
P = 100 [days] 100.48 100.45 100.41 100.44 100.06 100.11 100.07 100.13
e = 0 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.17 0.19
K = 5 [m s-1] 4.84 2.34 4.86 1.46 4.91 5.00 5.03 5.03
P = 200 [days] 200.74 200.69 200.62 200.66 200.34 200.15 200.14 200.09
e = 0 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
K = 2 [m s-1] 1.95 0.94 1.96 0.59 2.03 2.00 2.05 2.09
P = 200 [days] 201.97 201.73 201.71 201.33 199.92 201.04 200.13 199.84
e = 0 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.09 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.12
K = 1 [m s-1] 1.13 0.54 1.06 0.33 1.05 1.10 1.11 1.12
P = 200 [days] 203.55 203.18 203.55 202.14 201.92 201.68 200.57 198.06
e = 0 0.20 0.14 0.15 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14
K = 0.5 [m s-1] − − − − − 0.66 0.64 0.65
P = 200 [days] − − − − − 202.08 201.97 201.36
e = 0 − − − − − 0.09 0.13 0.11
K = 0.3 [m s-1] − − − − − 0.50 0.48 0.48
P = 200 [days] − − − − − 201.84 202.62 203.16
e = 0 − − − − − 0.17 0.11 0.09

Notes. Signals detected reliably, i.e. whose 99% Bayesian credibility intervals contain the parameter values of the artificially added signals, are emphasised using boldface.

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