Fig. 4

Results of Monte Carlo simulations of Periodicity test. These figures show the results of the Monte Carlo analysis of the periodicity test, yielding the probability that a sample of in-transit observations will pass under a wide range of conditions. We disable (thick lines) and enable (thin lines) the ability to exclude a single interloper for a periodic (continuous lines) and non-periodic (dashed lines) set of in-transit observations. The size of this set is allowed to range from 5 to 17, with the number of interlopers ranging from 0 (top row) to 2 (bottom row) for two different αs, 2 (left column) and 3 (right column). Note first and foremost that non-periodic samples exhibit a significant probability of passing the periodicity test if the number of observations is small. This suggests a lower limit to the number of in-transit observations to be confident in the periodicity. This limit has an additional dependence on α as well. Notice that enabling interloper exclusion increases this lower limit by approximately two – effectively one, as the interloper is removed from consideration. In addition, if interloper exclusion is not enabled and an interloper is present, the probability that the periodicity will still be recovered, regardless of the number of true periodic observations, drops significantly: about 18% for α = 3 and only 10% for α = 2. Lastly, if two interlopers are present among the in-transit observations, even with single interloper exclusion on the probability that the sample will pass the test is low: 34% for α = 3 and 20% for α = 2. Such situation should be rare, however, unless the noise distribution is very non-Gaussian.
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