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Subsections

  
6 Discussion and conclusions

The effects of both obscuration by the gaseous disk of the Galaxy and the limited sensitivity of currently available H  surveys have important consequences for the observed properties of the HVC phenomenon. We have identified those consequences in this paper. Obscuration leads to apparent localized enhancements of object density, as well as to systematic kinematic trends that need not be inherent to the population of CHVCs. A varying resolution and sensitivity over the sky substantially complicates the interpretation of the observed distributions. Taking account of both these effects in a realistic manner is crucial to assessing the viability of models for the origin and deployment of the anomalous-velocity H  I. Our discussion leads to specific predictions for the numbers and kinematics of faint CHVCs which can be tested in future H  surveys.

6.1 Galactic Halo models

As shown in Sect. 5, a straightforward empirical model in which CHVCs are dispersed throughout an extended halo centered on the Galaxy does not provide the means to discriminate between distances typical of the Galactic Halo and those of the Local Group. Comparable fit quality is realized for distance dispersions ranging from about 30 to 300 kpc. In addition to requiring a relatively large number of free parameters, such empirical models beg a number of serious physical questions. In the first instance: how is it that H  clouds can survive at all in a low-pressure, high-radiation-density environment without the pressure support given by a dark halo? Presumably such "naked'' Galactic Halo H  clouds would either be very short-lived or require continuous replenishment, since the timescales for reaching thermal and pressure equilibrium are only about 107 years (Wolfire et al. 1995). Realistic assessment of such a scenario must await more detailed simulations that track the long-term fate of gas, for example after tidal stripping from the LMC/SMC, within the Galactic Halo. Only by including more physics will it be possible to reduce the number of free parameters and determine meaningful constraints on this type of scenario. This class of model also suffers from a number of shortcomings in describing the observed distributions, namely that the object density enhancement coupled with high negative velocities seen in the Local Group barycenter direction are not reproduced.

The Galactic Halo simulations returned formally acceptable values of characteristic distance as low as some 30 kpc. There is, however, a growing body of independent evidence based on high-resolution imaging of a limited number of individual CHVCs that such nearby distances do not apply. Braun & Burton (2000) discussed evidence from Westerbork synthesis observations of rotating cores in CHVC? 204.2 + 29.8 + 075 (using the de Heij et al. 2002 notation for a semi-isolated source) whose internal kinematics could be well modeled by rotation curves in flattened disk systems within cold dark matter halos as parameterized by Navarro et al. (1997), if at a distance of at least several hundred kpc. Similar distances were indicated for CHVC? 115.4 + 13.4 - 260 on the basis of dynamical stability and crossing-time arguments regarding the several cores observed with different systemic velocities, but embedded in a common diffuse envelope. The WSRT data for CHVC 125.3 + 41.3 - 205 likewise supported distances of several hundred kpc, based on a volume-density constraint stemming from the observed upper limit to the kinetic temperature of 85 K. Burton et al. (2001) found evidence in Arecibo imaging of ten CHVCs for exponential edge profiles of the individual objects: the outer envelopes of the CHVCs are not tidally truncated and thus are likely to lie at substantial distances from the Milky Way. For plausible values of the thermal pressure at the core/halo interface, these edge profiles support distance estimates which range between 150 and 850 kpc.

6.2 Local Group models

The Local Group deployment models of Sect. 4 offer a more self-consistent and physically motivated scenario for the CHVC population. Dark-matter halos provide the gravitational confinement needed to produce a two-phase atomic medium with cool H  condensations within warm H  envelopes, and provide in addition the necessary protection against ram-pressure and tidal stripping to allow long-term survival. The kinematics of the population follow directly from an assumed passive evolution within the Local Group potential. While three free parameters (the distance scalelength, the mass function slope, and the upper mass cut-off) were then tuned to explore consistency with the observations, only the distance was effectively a "free'' parameter. The mass function slopes of the best fits have values of -1.7 to -1.8, in rough agreement with the value of -1.6 favored by Chiu et al. (2001) for the distribution of the baryonic masses in their cosmological simulations. The somewhat steeper slopes and therefore larger baryonic fractions favored by our model fits might be accomodated by recondensation onto the dark-matter halos at later times.

The H  upper mass cut-off introduced in the Local Group models can also be externally constrained. In addition to satisfying the observational demand that no H  column densities exceeding a few times 1020 cm-2 are seen in the CHVC population (consistent with the absence of current internal star formation), there is the observed lower limit of about $3\times10^7~M_\odot$ for the H  mass seen in a large sample of late-type dwarf galaxies (Swaters 1999). The upper mass cut-off favored by the simulations, of about $10^7~M_\odot$, is essentially unavoidable given these two constraints.

The spatial Gaussian dispersion which is favored by these simulations is quite tightly constrained to lie between about 150 and 200 kpc. The implication for the distribution of object distances is illustrated in Fig. 27 in the form of a histogram of the detected objects from model #9. The distribution has a broad peak extending from about 200 to 450 kpc with a few outliers extending out to 1 Mpc due primarily to the M 31 sub-population. The filled circles in the figure are the distance estimates for individual CHVCs found by Braun & Burton (2000) and Burton et al. (2001). Although very few in number, these estimates appear consistent with the model distribution, also peaking in number near 250 kpc.

We have made the simplifying assumption that the baryonic matter in our model clouds is exclusively in the form of H  , rather than being partially ionized. It is reassuring that the best-fitting models have peak column densities which are sufficiently high that the objects should be self-shielding to the extragalactic ionizing radiation field for $M_{\rm
HI}>10^{5.5}~M_\odot$ as noted above. Since the neutral component requires a power-law slope of about -1.7 to fit the data, it seems likely that the total baryonic mass distribution might follow an even steeper distribution, since the mass fraction of ionized gas will increase toward lower masses.

6.3 The Local Group mass function

An interesting question to consider is whether the extrapolated mass distributions of our Local Group CHVC models can also account for the number of galaxies currently seen. In Fig. 28 we plot the mass distribution of objects in one of the best-fitting Local Group models, model #9 of Table 4. The thin-line histogram gives the mass distribution of the model population after accounting for the effects of ram-pressure and tidal stripping. The thick-line histogram gives the observed CHVC distribution that results from applying the effects of Galactic obscuration and sensitivity limitations appropriate to the LDS and HIPASS properties in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The hatched histogram gives the inferred total baryonic (H  plus stellar) mass distribution of the Local Group galaxies tabulated by Mateo (1998), assuming a stellar mass-to-light ratio of $M/L_B
=3~M_\odot/L_\odot$. M 31 and the Galaxy, with baryonic masses of some 10 $^{11}~M_\odot$, are not included in the plot. The diagonal line in the figure has the slope of the model H  mass function of $\beta =-1.7$. The figure demonstrates that the low-mass populations of these models are roughly in keeping with what is expected from the number of massive galaxies together with a constant mass function slope of about $\beta =-1.7$. At intermediate masses, 107-10 $^{8.5}~M_\odot$, there is a small deficit of cataloged Local Group objects relative to this extrapolated distribution, while at higher masses there is a small excess. Conceivably this may be the result of galaxy evolution by mergers.

It is important to note that the distribution of objects shown in Fig. 28 is only the current relic of a much more extensive parent population. As shown in Table 5, about 75% of the CHVC population in these models is predicted to have been disrupted by ram pressure or tidal stripping over a Hubble time, contributing about $3\times10^9~M_\odot$ of baryons to the Local Group environment and the major galaxies.

6.4 The M 31 population of CHVCs

One of the most suggestive attributes of the CHVC population in favor of a Local Group deployment is the modest concentration of objects which are currently detected in the general direction of M 31, i.e. in the direction of the Local Group barycenter. These objects have extreme negative velocities in the GSR reference frame. While this is a natural consequence of the Local Group models it does not follow from the empirical Galactic halo models, nor is it a consequence of obscuration by Galactic H  I. Putman & Moore (2002) have made some comparisons between numerical simulations of dark matter mini-halos in the Local Group with the $(l,V_{\rm LGSR})$distributions of HVCs and CHVCs, and were led to reject the possibility of CHVC deployment throughout the Local Group. Our discussion here has shown that such comparisons require taking explicit account of detection thresholds in the available survey observations, as well as of the vagaries of obscuration caused by the H  Zone of Avoidance. The Putman & Moore investigation did not take these matters into account. The modest apparent amplitude of the M 31 concentration relative to the Galactic population as seen with present survey sensitivities provides the best current constraints on the global distance scale of the CHVC ensemble. There follows a testable prediction, namely that with increased sensitivity a larger fraction of the M 31 population of CHVCs should be detected. This prediction was made explicit in Fig. 23, where one of our model distributions was shown as it would have been detected if HIPASS sensitivity were available in the northern sky. For that particular model, some 250 additional detected objects are predicted, of which the majority are concentrated in the $60\times60^\circ$ region centered on M 31. The ongoing HIJASS survey of the sky north of $\delta=25^\circ$ (Kilborn 2002), which is being carried out using the 76-m Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank to about the same velocity coverage, angular resolution, and sensitivity as the HIPASS effort, should allow this prediction to be tested.

6.5 The Sculptor Group lines of sight

We have omitted the part of the sky around the south Galactic pole in our fitting of Local Group models to the observations, because of the extreme velocity dispersions measured in this direction. The nearest external group of galaxies, the Sculptor Group, is located in the direction of the south Galactic pole. If the CHVCs are distributed around the major Local Group galaxies, then plausibly the same sort of objects could be present in the Sculptor Group. Putman et al. (2002) mention detection of clouds in the direction of the southern part of the Sculptor Group. Because no similar clouds were detected in the northern part of this Group, they consider it unlikely that this concentration of CHVCs is associated with the Sculptor Group. We note, however, that rather than being a spherical concentration of galaxies, the Sculptor Group has an extended filamentary morphology, which ranges in distance from $1.7\rm\;Mpc$ in the south to $4.4\rm\;Mpc$ in the north. Putman et al. assumed that the HIPASS sensitivity would allow detection of H  masses of $7\times10^6\;M_\odot$ throughout the Sculptor Group. But in Fig. 13 we show the actual distance out to which HIPASS can detect H  masses given a realistic cloud model and detection threshold: even the most massive and rare objects in our simulated distributions, with $M_{\rm HI}=10^7\;M_\odot$, can only be detected out to $2.5\rm\;Mpc$. It is therefore only the near portion of the Sculptor filament that might be expected to show any enhancement in CHVC density with the currently available sensitivities.

6.6 Predicted CHVC populations in other galaxy groups

It is also interesting to consider whether the simulated Local Group model populations would be observable in external galaxy groups at even larger distances. In Fig. 29 we show one of our best-fitting Local Group models, model #9 of Table 4, projected onto a plane as in Fig. 20. In Fig. 20, the surviving clouds were distinguished by H  flux; in Fig. 29, the distinction is by H  mass. We indicate with grey dots those objects that were deemed to have been disrupted by ram-pressure or tidal stripping. The red and black dots indicate the remaining objects in the population, with the red dots representing objects that exceed $M_{\rm HI}=3\times10^6~M_\odot$ and the black dots those that fall below this mass limit. The choice of a limiting mass of $M_{\rm HI}=3\times10^6~M_\odot$ over a linewidth of 35 km s-1 was made to represent what might be possible for a deep H  survey of an external galaxy group. In this example, some 95 objects occur which exceed this mass limit distributed over a region of some $1.5\times 1.0$ Mpc extent. For a limiting mass of $M_{\rm HI}=5\times 10^6~M_\odot$over 35 km s-1, the number drops to 45. It is clear that a very good mass sensitivity will be essential to detecting such potential CHVC populations in external galaxy groups. Current searches for such populations, reviewed by Braun & Burton (2001), have generally not reached a sensitivity as good as even $M_{\rm HI}=10^7\;M_\odot$ over 35 km s-1, so it is no surprise that such distant CHVCs have not yet been detected.

Acknowledgements
The Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope is operated by the Netherlands Foundation for Research in Astronomy, under contract with the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research.


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