G. Michaek1,3 - N. Gopalswamy2 - A.
Lara3,4 - P. K. Manoharan3
1 - Astronomical Observatory of Jagiellonian University,
Cracow, Poland
2 - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
MD 20771, USA
3 - The Catholic University of America, Washington DC
20064, USA
4 - Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM, México
Received 2 February 2004 / Accepted 26 April 2004
Abstract
We describe an empirical model to predict the 1-AU
arrival time of halo CMEs. This model is based on the effective
acceleration described by Gopalswamy et al.
(2000a, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 145).
We verify the
Helios/Pioneer Venus Orbiter(PVO) estimation of the effective
acceleration profile (Gopalswamy et al. 2001a, J.
Geophys. Res., 106, 29207) by considering all
full halo CMEs recorded by SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs until the end
of 2002. In comparison with previous studies, the present work
includes CMEs of a wider range of initial velocities. To improve
the accuracy of prediction, we propose to introduce the effective
acceleration from two groups of CMEs only, which are expected to
have no acceleration cessation at any place between the Sun and
Earth. In addition, we consider acceleration cessation distance
dependent on initial velocities of a given event CME. For a
detailed analysis of this model, we examine projected sky-plane
and space speeds (Michaek et al. 2003, ApJ, 584, 472) of CMEs. We show that a
correct acceleration profile is crucial for the estimation of 1 AU
arrival time of halo CMEs. We estimate that the CME arrival times
can be predicted with an average error of 9 and 11 h for
space and sky-plane initial velocities, respectively.
Key words: Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
The early models concerning the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shock were based on observations of metric type II radio bursts (Smart & Shea 1985; Smith & Dryer 1990). In these models, the drift rate of type II bursts was used to determine the speed of the shock and to develop a scheme to predict their appearance in the vicinity of the Earth. However, it was pointed out by Gopalswamy et al. (1998, 2001b) that there is little connection between coronal shocks (inferred from metric type II bursts) and the IP shocks (detected in situ by spacecraft). Furthermore, IP shocks are not always followed by interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), which are responsible for geomagnetic storms (Cane et al. 2000, 2003). For example, IP shocks observed in situ without ICMEs are caused by large limb CME (Gopalswamy et al. 2001b). Therefore, predicting CME arrival at 1 AU is of fundamental importance (Gopalswamy et al. 2001b) and can be extended to predict shock arrival (Gopalswamy et al. 2003a,b).
Combining CME observations made by SOHO/LASCO and ICMEs
measurements near the Earth, Gopalswamy et al. (2000, 2001a)
developed an empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival time of
CMEs. The model was based on the fact that the speed distribution
of ICMEs, detected by the Wind spacecraft, was much narrower (in
the range
)
in comparison to the velocity
distribution of CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO near the Sun (in the
range
). They postulated that CMEs undergo an
effective acceleration due to interaction with the solar wind.
This effective acceleration was assumed to be constant over the
Sun-Earth distance and was defined as the difference between the
initial (u) and final (v) speeds divided by the time (t)
taken by a given CME to reach Earth. They found a definite
correlation between the effective acceleration (a) and
u:
a=1.41-0.0035u (a and u are in units
and
respectively; Gopalswamy et al. 2000a). SOHO/LASCO
measurements of Earth-directed CMEs are subject to major
projection effects (Gopalswamy 2000b). To minimize the projection
effects, Gopalswamy et al. (2001a, hereafter Paper I) used
archival data from spacecraft in quadrature to get an
improved effective acceleration model:
a=2.193-0.0054u. These
relations can be used in the
kinematic equation,
S=ut+at2/2, where S is the distance
travelled by the CME, to predict the arrival time at 1-AU. It is
important to note that the only free parameter required by the
model is the initial CME velocity. To generalize the model,
Gopalswamy et al. (2001a) assumed that the effective acceleration
can cease at some distance (d) between the Sun and Earth. Best
results were obtained when the acceleration ceased at a distance
of 0.76 AU. With this model, Gopalswamy et al. (2001a) were able
to predict the travel time within an error of 10.7 h. They found
that a simple geometrical correction (Leblanc et al. 2001) for
projection effects did not work and suggested that such effects
were partly compensated by CME expansion.
Recently Michaek et al. (2003) developed a new method to obtain
the space-speed of CMEs, which minimizes the projection effects
for full halo CMEs and, therefore, gives a better approximation
for the CME initial speed. In this work we have obtained the space
speed of Earth directed full halo CMEs recorded by the SOHO/LASCO
coronagraph from January 1996 to December 2002. In comparison
with previous studies, the present work includes a greater number
of CMEs from a longer period of solar activity. To improve the
accuracy of prediction, we propose to introduce the effective
acceleration from two groups of CMEs only, which are expected to
have no acceleration cessation at any place between the Sun and
Earth. In addition, we consider the acceleration cessation
distance to be dependent on initial velocities of a given event
CME. To obtain a detailed analysis of this model, we examine
projected sky-plane and space speeds (Micha
ek et al. 2003) of
CMEs. Then we looked for the ICME counterparts and compute the
acceleration profile. Our data set is expanded not only in number
but also in the velocity interval considered in previous works. In
this paper we consider only front-sided halo CMEs (FHCME)
To build an empirical model to predict 1-AU arrival time we follow
the same steps as in Gopalswamy et al. (2000a): (1) select the
FHCME-ICME pairs (in this case we started with all FHCMEs observed
by LASCO and found the related ICMEs); (2) determine an empirical
relation between the effective acceleration and the initial speed
of CMEs (using a new method to obtain the initial space-speed);
and (3) use the kinematic equations to obtain the transit time t (using different criteria to select the cessation distance).
We consider all CMEs (width =
from 1996 until the end of 2002 as listed in http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list
In situ counterparts of front-sided HCMEs can be recognized in the magnetic field and plasma measurements as ejecta (EJs) or magnetic clouds (MCs). Magnetic clouds have the following characteristic properties: (1) the magnetic field strength is higher than the average; (2) the proton temperature is lower than the average; and (3) the magnetic filed direction rotates smoothly (Burlaga 1988, 2002, 2003a,b; Lepping et al. 1990). In this paper we refer to both MCs and EJs as interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). The presence of these signatures changes from one ICME to an other. The ICME boundaries can be fuzzy and the arrival time of MCs is determined with some error. This is also the reason that in our considerations the average speeds of ICMEs are applied.
Using the SOHO/LASCO catalog and Wind spacecraft data, we were
able to select 83 FHCME-ICME pairs covering a period of time from
the beginning of 1996 until the end of 2002. The total number of
FHCMEs during this period is 123. Note that the total number of
halo CMEs reported by Gopalswamy et al. (2003) during this period
is 468, which included all CMEs with width >
irrespective of whether they are front-sided or back-sided. Events
studied in this paper are shown in Table 1. The
first three columns are from the SOHO/LASCO catalog (date, time of first appearance
in the coronagraph and
projected speed). Details about the SOHO/LASCO catalog
and method of measurements is described by Yashiro et al. (2003).
Assuming that a HCME has a constant velocity near the Sun and a
cone-shaped structure, Michaek et al. (2003) were able to
obtain the space speed, which is different from the one obtained
by correcting for geometrical projection. This technique requires
measurements of sky-plane speeds and the times of first appearance
of the halo CMEs
above the opposite limbs. We apply this technique
to obtain the parameters of all the HCMEs. The space velocities could
be determined for 49 HCME-ICME pairs and are shown in Col. 4
of Table 1. For the remaining 34 halo CMEs, it was not possible to
obtain the space speed. This situation occurs when a HCME is too
faint to generate the height-time plot at opposite limbs or when a
HCME is symmetric.
It is important to note that for some events, the space
velocity determined by
this technique could be smaller than the projected speeds reported
in the LASCO catalog. This is because the Micha
ek et al. (2003)
technique applies only to the beginning phase of CMEs, whereas the
CME catalog gives average speeds within the LASCO C2 field of
view.
When a CME strongly
accelerates, the sky plane velocity can increase significantly in the
LASCO field of view.
By examining solar wind plasma data from the
Solar Wind Experiment (Wind/SWE)
http://web.mit.edu/space/www/wind/) instrument and interplanetary
magnetic field data (from Magnetic Field Investigation,
http://lepmfi.gsfc.nasa.gov/mfi), we identified interplanetary
CMEs. For each event, we determine the approximate start time and
average speed of the ICME. The date and average speed of 83 ICMEs
are presented in Cols. 6 and 7 of Table 1. The travel time
(Col. 5),
,
was obtained from the
difference in the time of first appearance of a given CME in the
LASCO coronagraph (
)
and the respective ICME in Wind
observations (
).
In Fig. 1 we plot the observed travel times for both sets: the
49 corrected (plus symbols, upper panel) and 83 uncorrected
(diamonds, lower panel) CMEs considered in this study. For
comparison, we have also plotted the predicted travel times
computed based on the acceleration profile of Paper I:
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Figure 1: Comparison between predicted and observed travel times based on the acceleration profile a=2.193-0.0054u (Gopalswamy et al. 2001a). The solid, dashed and dot-dashed lines represent model predictions for acceleration-cessation distance equal to 1.0, 0.75 and 0.5 AU, respectively. The plus symbols denote the data points corrected for projection effect (49 HCME-ICME pairs, upper panel) and diamond symbols for data points uncorrected for the projection effect (83 HCME-ICME pairs, bottom panel). |
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Figure 2:
The effective
acceleration profiles versus initial speed of HCMEs listed in
Table 1. The plus symbols denote the data points. The left panel
show 49 HCMEs with corrected initial velocities and the right 83
CMEs with uncorrected initial velocities. The solid and dashed
lines (in the left panel) are quadratic and linear fits to the
data points respectively. The dot-dashed lines (in the both
panels) are linear fits for the three events with initial velocity
closest to
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To improve the travel time prediction we derive a new acceleration
profile using corrected space speeds of 49 halo CMEs in an
expanded speed range (from 117 to
). Figure 2
(left panel) shows the effective acceleration
computed from the observed transit times and the initial (white-light)
and final (in situ) speeds, versus the
initial space speed for 49 FHCME-ICME pairs listed in Table 1.
The correlation between acceleration and initial velocity is very
good (the correlation coefficient is 0.94).
The solid line in Fig. 2 (the left panel) represents a quadratic
fit to the data points, giving an effective acceleration:
The travel times computed using the acceleration profiles given by
Eq. (4) are plotted
in Fig. 4, the comparison between predicted and observed travel
times for corrected (upper panel) and uncorrected (bottom panel)
velocities are shown. The prediction curves corresponding to the
acceleration cessation distances of 0.50, 0.75 and 1 AU together
with measured points are presented in the figure. Again the
agreement with observations is not good. In this case, CMEs seem
to arrive later than the model predictions.
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Figure 3:
Comparison between observed and
predicted travel time for the model described by the effective
acceleration profile
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Figure 4: Comparison between observed and predicted travel time for the model described by effective acceleration profile a=4.11-0.0063u. The upper panel displays data points for 49 events with corrected velocities and bottom panel for 83 events with uncorrected velocities. The solid, dashed and dot-dashed lines represent model estimations for acceleration-cessation distances equal to 1.0, 0.75 and 0.5 AU,respectively. |
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Figure 5: Comparison between observed and predicted travel time for the model described by effective acceleration profile a=3.35-0.0074u. The upper panel displays data points for 49 events with corrected velocities and bottom panel for 83 events with uncorrected velocities. The solid, dashed and dot-dashed lines represent model estimations for acceleration-cessation distances equal to 1.0, 0.75 and 0.5 AU, respectively. |
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From the point of view of interaction with the solar wind, there are three types of CMEs: (i) slow CMEs accelerated by solar wind; (ii) CMEs which have almost the same velocity as the solar wind and (iii) fast CMEs which are decelerated. Before reaching the Earth, some CMEs attain the solar wind speed; for these events, the time over which acceleration takes place may be shorter, but we do not know at what distance the acceleration ceases. The effective acceleration derived by using the 1-AU travel time in this case may not be correct. So we introduce the effective acceleration from two groups of CMEs only.
We choose CMEs in two extreme cases: i) when there is no
acceleration
(cessation distance zero) and ii) CMEs which are still decelerating
at 1-AU (cessation distance greater than 1-AU). The first
condition is fulfilled by CMEs with an initial speed close to the
solar wind speed (we assume
). The second group
consists of the fastest CMEs which at 1-AU have speeds much higher
than the solar wind speed ( the three fastest events from our
sample CME speed >
). We assume that the two
sub-samples represent CMEs that do not stop accelerating at any
place between the Sun and Earth. So for these CMEs the 1-AU
travel time (t) should be equal to the real acceleration time.
Assuming that the
acceleration depends linearly on the initial speed, we get an
extremum formula for CME acceleration
![]() |
Figure 6: Comparison between observed and predicted travel time for the model described by effective acceleration profile a=3.35-0.0074u and acceleration cessation distance dependant on initial velocity of CMEs. The upper panel displays data points for 49 events with corrected velocities and bottom panel for 83 events with uncorrectedvelocities. |
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Firstly, we considered the model with arbitrary fixed acceleration
cessation distances. The prediction curves, corresponding to the
acceleration cessation distances of 0.50, 0.75 and 1-AU, together
with both data sets are presented in Fig. 5. The estimated travel
times for CMEs with initial velocities in the range
and an acceleration cessation distance equal
to 1-AU is not bounded. Results for the models with acceleration
cessation distances equal to 0.75 and 0.50 AU are very similar to
those shown by the model presented in Paper I. The slow CMEs seem
to be slightly faster and fast CMEs slightly slower than
predictions obtained with the model.
Finally, we use the extreme model (Eq. (5))
and we assume that the acceleration cessation distance depends on
the initial space velocity. In this model, we assume that each
CME at the beginning phase of propagation is accelerated or
decelerated until it achieves a velocity equal to
.
From this point a given CME propagates with constant velocity.
This means that events with different initial velocities will have
different acceleration cessation distances. The fastest events can
continue to be decelerated until detection in situ and beyond,
without cessation of acceleration at any distance from the Sun.
The events with an initial velocity equal to
propagate with constant velocity, similar to the average solar
wind speed. This model, in that sense, is different from the
previous considerations. In the previous models we assumed the
same acceleration cessation distance for all CMEs from the entire
initial velocity range. In Fig. 6 we compare the prediction
curve with the measured travel time for corrected and uncorrected
speeds. The predicted curve is almost a straight line with a
flattening at the largest initial speeds. In this case, the
agreement between the model and data for corrected velocities is
very good (upper panel). The results are not so good for events
with uncorrected velocities (lower panel). The data points for
corrected velocities seem to be slightly shifted towards larger
velocities with respect to data points represented by uncorrected
velocities. This means that it will be very difficult to build a
single general model to predict travel time with good accuracy
for both data sets. To improve the results it is necessary to
consider a similar model but for uncorrected velocities.
In the previous subsection we discussed the model which with good
accuracy predicts the arrival time for FHCMEs using estimated
initial space velocities. Unfortunately, this model is not very
useful in practice. Mostly we have only CME speeds projected to
the plane of the sky. We try to build a similar model but using
only projected speeds of FHCMEs. Figure 2 (right panel) is a
scatter plot of the effective acceleration for the 83 FHCME-ICME
pairs obtained using sky plane speeds. As before, we obtained the
acceleration profile as
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(6) |
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Figure 7: Comparison between observed and predicted travel time for the model described by effective acceleration profile a=2.99-0.0067u and acceleration cessation distance dependant on initial velocity of CMEs. The upper panel displays data points for 49 events with corrected velocities and bottom panel for 83 events with uncorrected velocities. |
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Figure 8: The histograms illustrate the distribution of estimated errors in the arrival time for models with the effective acceleration profile a=3.35 - 0.0074u (two upper panels), a=2.99 - 0.0067u (two bottom panels) and the acceleration cessation distance dependant on initial velocities of CMEs. The panels 1 and 3 display distribution of errors for 49 events with corrected velocities and the panels 2 and 4 display distribution of errors for 83 events with uncorrected velocities. |
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In Fig. 8, histograms of distribution of estimate errors for models with effective acceleration profiles a=3.35-0.0074u (Eq. (5)) and a=2.99 - 0.0067u (Eq. (6)) are presented. The errors are computed as the deviation of the observed points from the predicted values. In these, we considered an acceleration cessation distance dependent on the initial speeds of the CMEs. Panels 1 and 3 show the distribution of errors for the 49 events with corrected initial velocities and panels 2 and 4 for 83 events with uncorrected initial velocities. For events with corrected initial velocities and the first acceleration profile (Eq. (5)), errors have a Gausian distribution with a peak at 0 h. The mean error of 8.7 h is lower than the one obtained in Paper I (first panel, Fig. 8). The distribution of errors for the same profile but for events with uncorrected initial velocities has a Gaussian profile but with a peak shifted to -6 h (second panel, Fig. 8). The situation changes when we consider the effective acceleration ( a=2.99-0.0067u) from uncorrected speeds. In this case, the error distribution has a Gausian profile with a peak at 0 hours for events with uncorrected initial velocities (fourth panel, Fig. 8). The mean error of 11.2 h is nearly the same as the one obtained in Paper I (2001a). The error distribution for that profile and corrected velocities is almost flat with two peaks at -12 and 18 h (third panel, Fig. 8).
Acknowledgements
In this paper we used data from SOHO/ LASCO CME catalog at the CDAW Data Center, NASA/GSFC in collaboration with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA. Work Supported by NASA/LWS and NSF/SHINE programs.
Work done by Grzegorz Michaek was also supported by Komitet Badan Naukowych through the grant PB 0357/P04/2003/25. AL was partially supported by UNAM grant PAPIIT IN 119402.
Table 1: The list of HCME-ICME pairs.