A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24
National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, PR China e-mail: email@example.com
Accepted: 15 May 2006
Aims.This paper aims to search for a method to estimate the onset of a new solar cycle by re-investigating the relationship between descending and ascending phase durations in terms of weighted extremum times.
Methods.The lagged cross-correlation method is used to analyze their relationship.
Results. The descending phase durations are found to be anti-correlated (correlation coefficient, -0.77) with the ascending phase durations three cycles earlier, in the 13-month running mean sunspot numbers since cycle 8. From linear regression analysis, the descending phase duration of cycle 23 is estimated to be months; thus, cycle 24 should start near March 2007, where the error bar equals ± standard error.
Key words: Sun: activity / Sun: sunspots / Sun: general
© ESO, 2006