\begin{table}%t3
\caption{\label{table:predictions}Observed and predicted microlensing statistics.
}
%\centerline
 {\begin{tabular}{cccccc}
\cline{2-5}\\[-3mm]
\cline{2-5}
\multicolumn{1}{c}{} & \bf $\tmus$ &  \bf $\gnor$ & \bf $\gsct$ & \bf $\bsct$ & \multicolumn{1}{c}{}\\ \cline{1-5}
 $\bar{b\degree}$     & --1.46 & --2.42 & --2.09 & --2.15 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{}\\
 $\bar{l\degree}$     & 306.56 & 331.09 & 18.51 & 26.60 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{}\\ \hline
\multicolumn{1}{c}{} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\bf Observations} & All \\  
 $\tau\times 10^6$    &$.67^{\rm +.63}_{-.52}$&$.49^{\rm +.21}_{-.18}$&$.72^{\rm +.41}_{-.28}$&$.30^{\rm +.23}_{-.20}$ & $.51^{\rm +.13}_{-.13}$\\  % coupures avec u_0<0.7. Erreurs feldman-cousins*facteur microlensing
 $N_{\rm events}$              &   3   &       10              &        6             & 3  & 22  \\
% valeurs exactes $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ (days) &  97.2 &   56.6   &   46.9     & 59.1 & (59.8)    \\
 $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ (days) &  $97\pm 47$ &   $57\pm 10$   &   $47\pm 6$     & $59\pm 6$ & $60\pm 9$    \\
% valeurs exactes $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ & 80.3  & 29.3  & 12.7   & 9.5  & (39.6)  \\
 $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ (days) & 80  & 29  & 13   & 10  & 40  \\
% $\tau$        &$0.58^{+.44}_{-.37}$&$0.45^{+.15}_{-.13}$&$0.81^{+.34}_{-.27}$&$0.33^{+.23}_{-.13}$ & $0.50^{+.10}_{-.10}$\\  % coupures ordinaires
% $N$              &   3   &       11              &        8             & 4  & 26  \\
% $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ &  97.2 &   56.5   &   48.4     & 59.5 & (59.1)    \\
% $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ & 80.3  & 27.9  & 13.7   & 8.3  & (36.7)  \\
%
% $\tau$        &$0.85^{+.65}_{-.54}$&$0.56^{+.21}_{-.18}$&$1.01^{+.48}_{-.40}$&$0.24^{+.27}_{-.15}$ & $XX^{+.10}_{-.10}$\\  % coupures strictes
% $N$              &   3   &       10              &        7             & 2  & 22  \\
% $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ &  97. &   53.   &   49.     & 58. & (XXX)    \\
$\epsilon$ corrected $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ & $65\pm 45$ & $43\pm 10$ & $45\pm 6$ & $58\pm 6$ & $48\pm 9$ \\
$\epsilon$ corrected $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ & 75 & 31 & 13 & 9 & 38 \\
 $median\ t_{\rm E}$	& 74.2	& 64.	& 47.2	& 55.	&  56.5 \\
\hline
%\multicolumn{6}{c}{} \\
\hline
\multicolumn{1}{c}{} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\bf $\tau\ (\times 10^6)$ from models} & $\chi^2_{\rm model}$ \\  
A      		& 0.32  & 0.48                 & 0.79                 & 0.60 & 2.3 \\
+spiral      	& 0.56  & 0.69                 & 1.07                 & 0.83 & 7.9 \\
B      		& 0.34  & 0.51                 & 0.85                 & 0.64 & 2.9 \\
+spiral      	& 0.61  & 0.72                 & 1.13                 & 0.90 & 10.2 \\
C      		& 0.47  & 0.78                 & 1.11                 & 0.95 & 12.5 \\
+spiral      	& 0.71  & 1.18                 & 1.43                 & 1.23 & 36.1 \\
D		& 0.32	& 0.56		       & 0.41		      & 0.38 & 1.4 \\
% 15 mai 2008, calcul vers les directions moyennes (pas a -2.5 degre)
model 1		& 0.42  & 0.52                 & 0.71                 & 0.57 & 1.8 \\
model 2         & 0.54  & 0.68                 & 0.90                 & 0.74 & 5.4 \\
\hline
%\multicolumn{6}{c}{} \\
\cline{1-5}
\multicolumn{1}{c}{} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\bf Predictions from model 1} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\ 
% 15 mai 2008, calcul vers les directions moyennes (pas a -2.5 degre)
% $\tau\times 10^6$             & 0.42  & 0.52                 & 0.71                 & 0.57 & 1.8 \\
 $N_{\rm events}$                  &  2.8  &  9.9                 & 7.1                  & 6.3 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
% 20 mai 2008
 $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ (days)  &  73.8   &  67.9                  & 37.9                   & 60.2 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
 $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ (days) &  63   &  54                  & 36                   & 48 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
 $median\ t_{\rm E}$	& 54.5	& 52.5	& 28.0	& 46.5	& \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
\cline{1-5}
\multicolumn{1}{c}{} & \multicolumn{4}{c}{\bf $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ from published models} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
C (no effic.)		& 45	& 28	& 25	& 27 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
C+spiral		& 38	& 38	& 44	& 40 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
D 		& 80.9	& 86.5	& 76.9	& 77.4 & \multicolumn{1}{c}{} \\
\cline{1-5}
%\multicolumn{1}{|c}{} & \multicolumn{4}{c|}{\bf Predictions from model 2} & \\ \cline{1-5}
%$\tau\times 10^6$             & 0.45  & 0.63                 & 0.82                 & 0.74 & 5.7 \\
% 15 mai 2008, calcul vers les directions moyennes (au lieu de -2.5 degre)
%$\tau\times 10^6$             & 0.54  & 0.68                 & 0.90                 & 0.74 & 5.4 \\
% $N_{\rm events}$                & 1.5   & 4.8                  &  2.0                 & 1.8 &   \\
% $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$   & 75    & 69                   & 57                   & 68 &    \\
% $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$ & 48    & 45                   & 42                   & 47 &   \\
\cline{1-5}
\end{tabular}}
\par
\smallskip
\par
{\bf First panel}: observed optical depth $\tau$, number of events $N_{\rm events}$, 
average $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$, dispersion $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$,
efficiency corrected $\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ and $\sigma_{t_{\rm E}}$
and median time scale for each monitored direction.
Here, we consider only the events used for the optical depth
estimates ({i.e.} with $u_0<0.7$).
{\bf Second panel}: optical depth predictions from models A, B, C,
including or not a spiral structure (see text), % (\cite{evans}),
and from model D, and estimates up to {7~kpc} from the two
simple Galactic models described in Table~\ref{table:tabmodel}.
The $\chi^2$'s quantify the adequacy with the observations
(see Sect.~\ref{sec:comparisons}).
{\bf Third panel}: expected numbers of events and duration distribution parameters
from model 1 and from models C and D.
$\bar{t_{\rm E}}$ from model C do not take into account the
detection efficiency.
\end{table}